Energie Cottbus U19 2–3 Dynamo Dresden U19

Energie Cottbus U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Dynamo Dresden U19

E. Kaizer 36' (pen)

D. Silic 18'

L. Ehrlich 75'

P. Lehmann 73'

J.Saliger 12' (pen)

2/25/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 15Stadion an der Lipezker Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Energie Cottbus U1942%

×Draw23%

Dynamo Dresden U1935%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Energie Cottbus U19Expected goals in this matchDynamo Dresden U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.60

Energie Cottbus U19

1.78

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.60

Energie Cottbus U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 80 away

1.80

creates per match

1.55

1.66

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Energie Cottbus U19

1.80

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.55

allows per match

Energie Cottbus U19

1.66

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Energie Cottbus U19+0.00on par

Dynamo Dresden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Energie Cottbus U19 ↓

Dynamo Dresden U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Energie Cottbus U19 or draw

65%

Energie Cottbus U19 or Dynamo Dresden U19

77%

Draw or Dynamo Dresden U19

58%

Winning margin

Energie Cottbus U19 wins by 2+

22%

Dynamo Dresden U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Energie Cottbus U19 1+ goals

83%

Energie Cottbus U19 2+ goals

53%

Energie Cottbus U19 3+ goals

26%

Dynamo Dresden U19 1+ goals

80%

Dynamo Dresden U19 2+ goals

47%

Dynamo Dresden U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Energie Cottbus U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Dynamo Dresden U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Energie Cottbus U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.66 · 61 matches

Dynamo Dresden U19 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.76 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Energie Cottbus U19 attack 1.80 + Dynamo Dresden U19 defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.78

Dynamo Dresden U19 attack 1.55 + Energie Cottbus U19 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Energie Cottbus U19 scores more

42%

level

23%

Dynamo Dresden U19 scores more

35%

Energie Cottbus U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Energie Cottbus U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

J.SaligerPenalty

18'

D. Silic

36'

E. KaizerPenalty

46'

K. Weyh← M. Krause

55'

C. Bräunling← J.Saliger

55'

C. Kosak← N. Orth

58'

R. Fuhrmann← A. Boukara

73'

P. Lehmann

75'

L. Ehrlich

76'

L. Kurek← A. Seemann

76'

Y. El Haddoudi← M. Grumbach

84'

T. Michalski← T. Benkert

88'

M. Wetschka← L. Ehrlich

90+3'

L. Krause← T. Menzel

Energie

Dynamo

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Ehrlich

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: F. Adelmann

58'▲R. Fuhrmann←▼A. Boukara

76'▲L. Kurek←▼A. Seemann

76'▲Y. El Haddoudi←▼M. Grumbach

84'▲T. Michalski←▼T. Benkert

Energie Cottbus U19 substitutes

FuhrmannKurekHaddoudiMichalskiStruckBairaktarovJung

Manager: W. Weisse

46'▲K. Weyh←▼M. Krause

55'▲C. Bräunling←▼J.Saliger

55'▲C. Kosak←▼N. Orth

88'▲M. Wetschka←▼L. Ehrlich

90+3'▲L. Krause←▼T. Menzel

Dynamo Dresden U19 substitutes

WeyhBräunlingKosakWetschkaKrauseWarneckHilger

U19 Bundesliga: Energie Cottbus U19 2–3 Dynamo Dresden U19

Dynamo Dresden U19 beat Energie Cottbus U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on February 25, 2023.

Goals: J.Saliger (12' pen), D. Silic (18'), E. Kaizer (36' pen), P. Lehmann (73'), L. Ehrlich (75').

The match was played at Stadion an der Lipezker Straße in Cottbus.

Energie Cottbus U19 vs Dynamo Dresden U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Energie Cottbus U19 2–3 Dynamo Dresden U19