Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Energetik vs Şagadam — Ýokary Liga 2020

Energetik
Energetik
FT
0 – 3
Şagadam
Şagadam
12/14/2022Ýokary LigaÝokary Liga · Round 26Energetik stadiony

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Energetik28%
×Draw24%
Şagadam48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Energetik
1.19
Şagadam
1.64

Şagadam creates 38% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 83 away

creates per match

Energetik
0.80
Şagadam
0.98

allows per match

Energetik
2.29
Şagadam
1.58

finishing

Energetik+0.00on par
Şagadam+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Energetik ↓

Şagadam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Energetik or draw
52%
Energetik or Şagadam
76%
Draw or Şagadam
72%

Winning margin

Energetik wins by 2+
11%
Şagadam wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Energetik 1+ goals
70%
Energetik 2+ goals
33%
Energetik 3+ goals
12%
Şagadam 1+ goals
81%
Şagadam 2+ goals
49%
Şagadam 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Energetik (draw refunded)
37%
Şagadam (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Energetik at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.29 · 55 matches

Şagadam away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.58 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Energetik attack 0.80 + Şagadam defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.19

Şagadam attack 0.98 + Energetik defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Energetik scores more
28%
level
24%
Şagadam scores more
48%

Şagadam at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Şagadam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ýokary Liga: Energetik 0–3 Şagadam

Şagadam beat Energetik 3-0 in Ýokary Liga on December 14, 2022.

The match was played at Energetik stadiony in Mary.