Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Energetik vs Köpetdag Aşgabat — Ýokary Liga 2020

Energetik
Energetik
FT
1 – 3
Köpetdag Aşgabat
Köpetdag Aşgabat
10/31/2020Ýokary LigaÝokary Liga · Round 22Energetik stadiony

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Energetik30%
×Draw24%
Köpetdag Aşgabat46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Energetik
1.33
Köpetdag Aşgabat
1.69

Köpetdag Aşgabat creates 27% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 86 away

creates per match

Energetik
0.80
Köpetdag Aşgabat
1.09

allows per match

Energetik
2.29
Köpetdag Aşgabat
1.87

finishing

Energetik+0.00on par
Köpetdag Aşgabat+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Energetik ↓

Köpetdag Aşgabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Energetik or draw
54%
Energetik or Köpetdag Aşgabat
76%
Draw or Köpetdag Aşgabat
70%

Winning margin

Energetik wins by 2+
13%
Köpetdag Aşgabat wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Energetik 1+ goals
74%
Energetik 2+ goals
38%
Energetik 3+ goals
15%
Köpetdag Aşgabat 1+ goals
82%
Köpetdag Aşgabat 2+ goals
50%
Köpetdag Aşgabat 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Energetik (draw refunded)
40%
Köpetdag Aşgabat (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Energetik at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.29 · 55 matches

Köpetdag Aşgabat away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.87 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Energetik attack 0.80 + Köpetdag Aşgabat defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.33

Köpetdag Aşgabat attack 1.09 + Energetik defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Energetik scores more
30%
level
24%
Köpetdag Aşgabat scores more
46%

Köpetdag Aşgabat at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Köpetdag Aşgabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Energetik vs Köpetdag Aşgabat

Köpetdag Aşgabat beat Energetik 3-1 in Ýokary Liga on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Energetik stadiony in Mary.