Empoli 2–1 Udinese: Result & Stats | Serie A

Empoli

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Udinese

F. Caputo 51'

M. Zajc 41'

I. Pussetto 81'

11/11/2018

Serie A · Round 12Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Empoli39%

×Draw25%

Udinese36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmpoliExpected goals in this matchUdinese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.40

Empoli

1.46

Udinese

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 139 away

1.35

creates per match

1.18

1.62

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Empoli

1.35

Udinese

1.18

allows per match

Empoli

1.62

Udinese

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Empoli+0.00on par

Udinese+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Udinese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Empoli or draw

64%

Empoli or Udinese

75%

Draw or Udinese

61%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+

18%

Udinese wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals

77%

Empoli 2+ goals

43%

Empoli 3+ goals

18%

Udinese 1+ goals

75%

Udinese 2+ goals

41%

Udinese 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)

52%

Udinese (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.62 · 66 matches

Udinese away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.56 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 1.35 + Udinese defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.46

Udinese attack 1.18 + Empoli defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Empoli scores more

39%

level

25%

Udinese scores more

36%

Empoli at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Empoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

I. Pussetto

Udinese · M

8.7

Match Events

21'

24'

40'

41'

45'

51'

60'

A. La Gumina← M. Zajc

64'

D. Machís← Samir

81'

I. Pussetto↳ D. Machís

82'

M. Brighi← R. Krunić

83'

M. D'Alessandro← H. ter Avest

90+1'

F. Veseli← H. Traorè

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EmpoliUdinese

Overview

39%Possession61%

14Total Shots31

4Corners13

7Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots31

5On Target9

6Off Target12

3Blocked10

10Inside Box15

4Outside Box16

Passing

39%Possession61%

319Total Passes470

213Accurate Passes378

67%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

8Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

3Offsides5