Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Empoli vs Spezia — Serie A 2026

Empoli
Empoli
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Spezia
Spezia
4/9/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 32Stadio Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Empoli37%
×Draw27%
Spezia37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Empoli
1.27
Spezia
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 7 away

creates per match

Empoli
1.19
Spezia
1.29

allows per match

Empoli
1.26
Spezia
1.34

finishing

Empoli-0.12scores less
Spezia-0.15scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Spezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Empoli or draw
63%
Empoli or Spezia
73%
Draw or Spezia
63%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+
16%
Spezia wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals
72%
Empoli 2+ goals
36%
Empoli 3+ goals
14%
Spezia 1+ goals
72%
Spezia 2+ goals
36%
Spezia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)
50%
Spezia (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 14 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.34 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 1.19 + Spezia defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Spezia attack 1.29 + Empoli defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Empoli scores more
37%
level
27%
Spezia scores more
37%

Empoli at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Empoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

94
I. ProvedelSpeziaSpezia · G
8.0

Match Events

11'
Federico Di Francesco
20'
Szymon Żurkowski
27'
Emmanuel Gyasi
29'
Kelvin Amian
56'
M. Benassi← F. Di Francesco
56'
A. La Mantia← S. Żurkowski
67'
D. Verde← K. Agudelo
78'
L. Henderson← F. Bandinelli
79'
A. Ismajli← S. Romagnoli
83'
V. Kovalenko← E. Gyasi
83'
M'Bala Nzola← R. Manaj
90'
Salvador Ferrer← A. Reca

Possession

57%Empoli

Shots

15Empoli

Pass accuracy

52%Empoli

Statistics

EmpoliSpezia
Overview
57%Possession43%
15Total Shots11
5Corners4
11Fouls18
Shots
15Total Shots11
4On Target5
8Off Target2
3Blocked4
12Inside Box9
3Outside Box2
Passing
57%Possession43%
413Total Passes318
310Accurate Passes221
75%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls18
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Empoli vs Spezia

Empoli and Spezia drew 0-0 in Serie A on April 9, 2022.

Empoli controlled possession (57%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Carlo Castellani in Empoli.