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Empoli vs Spezia — Serie B 2018

Empoli
Empoli
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Spezia
Spezia
D. Frattesi 71'
S. Bidaoui 56'
10/29/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 10Stadio Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Empoli49%
×Draw23%
Spezia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Empoli
1.81
Spezia
1.31

Empoli creates 38% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Empoli
1.72
Spezia
1.71

allows per match

Empoli
0.92
Spezia
1.90

finishing

Empoli-0.26scores less
Spezia-0.54scores less

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Spezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Empoli or draw
72%
Empoli or Spezia
77%
Draw or Spezia
51%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+
27%
Spezia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals
84%
Empoli 2+ goals
54%
Empoli 3+ goals
27%
Spezia 1+ goals
73%
Spezia 2+ goals
38%
Spezia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)
64%
Spezia (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.90 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 1.72 + Spezia defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.81

Spezia attack 1.71 + Empoli defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Empoli scores more
49%
level
23%
Spezia scores more
28%

Empoli at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Empoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
S. RomagnoliEmpoliEmpoli · D
7.3

Match Events

23'
Paolo Bartolomei
47'
Salvador Ferrer
50'
Jacopo Dezi
56'
S. Bidaoui↳ E. Gyasi
64'
J. Balkovec← L. Antonelli
64'
L. Mora← P. Bartolomei
67'
K. Laribi← N. Bajrami
67'
A. Ragusa← S. Bidaoui
71'
D. Frattesi↳ J. Balkovec
74'
S. Ricci← L. Štulac
75'
Elio Capradossi
76'
Claudio Terzi
78'
D. Burgzorg← F. Ricci
84'
Matteo Ricci
89'
Karim Laribi

Possession

62%Empoli

Shots

15Empoli

Pass accuracy

52%Empoli

Statistics

EmpoliSpezia
Overview
62%Possession38%
15Total Shots12
7Corners3
14Fouls18
Shots
15Total Shots12
4On Target4
7Off Target5
4Blocked3
9Inside Box8
6Outside Box4
Passing
62%Possession38%
576Total Passes361
498Accurate Passes285
86%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls18
2Yellow Cards5
3Offsides1

Empoli 1 – 1 Spezia

Empoli and Spezia drew 1-1 in Serie B on October 29, 2019.

Goals: S. Bidaoui (56'), D. Frattesi (71').

Empoli controlled possession (62%) and registered 15 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadio Carlo Castellani in Empoli.