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Empoli U20 vs Bologna U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Empoli U20
Empoli U20
Preview
09:00
Bologna U20
Bologna U20
5/1/2027Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 35
37%
Bologna U20
model favours
34%30%37%

Empoli U20 raise their game against the top half — 28% wins vs the upper half, only 24% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Empoli U2034%
×Draw30%
Bologna U2037%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Empoli U20
1.05
Bologna U20
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 40 away

creates per match

Empoli U20
1.00
Bologna U20
1.10

allows per match

Empoli U20
1.11
Bologna U20
1.10

finishing

Empoli U20+0.00on par
Bologna U20+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli U20 ↓

Bologna U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Empoli U20 or draw
63%
Empoli U20 or Bologna U20
70%
Draw or Bologna U20
66%

Winning margin

Empoli U20 wins by 2+
13%
Bologna U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Empoli U20 1+ goals
65%
Empoli U20 2+ goals
28%
Empoli U20 3+ goals
9%
Bologna U20 1+ goals
67%
Bologna U20 2+ goals
30%
Bologna U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Empoli U20 (draw refunded)
48%
Bologna U20 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Bologna U20 away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.10 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli U20 attack 1.00 + Bologna U20 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05

Bologna U20 attack 1.10 + Empoli U20 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Empoli U20 scores more
34%
level
30%
Bologna U20 scores more
37%

Bologna U20 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bologna U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U20
LWLDL
U20
LWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Empoli U20 vs Bologna U20 — Match Preview

Empoli U20 face Bologna U20 on May 1, 2027 in this Campionato Primavera - 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.