Emelec 3–0 Tecnico Universitario: Result & Stats

Emelec

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tecnico Universitario

B. Angulo 89', 24'

J. Montero 55'

6/2/2018

Liga Pro · Round 16Estadio Banco del Pacífico (Guayaquil)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Emelec51%

×Draw27%

Tecnico Universitario22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmelecExpected goals in this matchTecnico Universitario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.84

Emelec

1.43

Tecnico Universitario

0.84

Emelec creates 70% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 127 away

1.47

creates per match

0.86

0.82

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Emelec

1.47

Tecnico Universitario

0.86

allows per match

Emelec

0.82

Tecnico Universitario

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par

Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Tecnico Universitario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Emelec or draw

78%

Emelec or Tecnico Universitario

73%

Draw or Tecnico Universitario

49%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+

25%

Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals

76%

Emelec 2+ goals

42%

Emelec 3+ goals

17%

Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals

57%

Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals

21%

Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)

70%

Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.82 · 132 matches

Tecnico Universitario away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.47 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.43

Tecnico Universitario attack 0.86 + Emelec defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Emelec scores more

51%

level

27%

Tecnico Universitario scores more

22%

Emelec at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

B. Angulo

46'

H. Matamoros← F. Luna

55'

J. Montero

59'

R. Cuero← I. Zambrano

59'

L. Santana← J. Caicedo

68'

J. Carcelén← G. Chavasco

72'

C. Orejuela← J. Montero

81'

D. Quintero← R. Burbano

89'

B. Angulo

Emelec

Tecnico

30

15

6

8

10

▼

Chavasco

3

Velez

61

▼

Caicedo

16

Mora

7

▼

34

27

12

2

16

44

26

7

⚽

▼

Montero

5

Arroyo

18

Preciado

40

▼

Burbano

34

▼

Luna

19

⚽2

Angulo

Manager: M. Soso

46'▲H. Matamoros←▼F. Luna

72'▲C. Orejuela←▼J. Montero

81'▲D. Quintero←▼R. Burbano

Emelec substitutes

10Matamoros24Orejuela29Quintero1Bone8Mondaini9Jesús28Jaime

Manager: P. Hurtado

59'▲R. Cuero←▼I. Zambrano

59'▲L. Santana←▼J. Caicedo

68'▲J. Carcelén←▼G. Chavasco

Tecnico Universitario substitutes

11Cuero17Santana23Carcelén1Chávez32Torre2Castro33Flor