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Emelec vs Macara — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Emelec
Emelec
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Macara
Macara
J. Cevallos 76'
F. Barcelo 5'
4/6/2021CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · 1st RoundEstadio Banco del Pacífico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Emelec34%
×Draw32%
Macara34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emelec
0.96
Macara
0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

creates per match

Emelec
1.50
Macara
1.00

allows per match

Emelec
0.92
Macara
0.43

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par
Macara+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Macara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Emelec or draw
66%
Emelec or Macara
68%
Draw or Macara
66%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+
13%
Macara wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals
62%
Emelec 2+ goals
25%
Emelec 3+ goals
7%
Macara 1+ goals
62%
Macara 2+ goals
25%
Macara 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)
50%
Macara (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Macara away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.50 + Macara defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.96

Macara attack 1.00 + Emelec defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Emelec scores more
34%
level
32%
Macara scores more
34%

Emelec at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
S. RodríguezEmelecEmelec · M
7.9

Match Events

5'
F. Barcelo↳ S. Rodríguez
31'
Matías Duffard
46'
B. Sánchez← B. Carabalí
46'
E. Rodríguez← M. Duffard
46'
B. Díaz← R. Calderón
50'
Damián Schmidt
58'
J. Cevallos← A. Zapata
63'
Roberto Garcés
65'
Enson Rodriguez
66'
S. Portocarrero← R. Champang
70'
J. Caicedo← J. Rojas
76'
J. Cevallos↳ R. Caicedo
77'
M. Orlando← J. Santacruz
80'
A. Cabeza← F. Barcelo
81'
J. Orejuela← S. Rodríguez
83'
A. Araújo← F. Mora

Possession

62%Emelec

Shots

16Emelec

Pass accuracy

54%Emelec

Statistics

EmelecMacara
Overview
62%Possession38%
16Total Shots4
10Corners1
18Fouls22
Shots
16Total Shots4
7On Target2
5Off Target2
4Blocked0
13Inside Box2
3Outside Box2
Passing
62%Possession38%
483Total Passes297
416Accurate Passes216
86%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
18Fouls22
0Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
4Offsides1

Emelec 2 – 0 Macara

Emelec beat Macara 2-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 6, 2021.

Goals: F. Barcelo (5'), J. Cevallos (76').

Emelec controlled possession (62%) and registered 16 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio Banco del Pacífico in Guayaquil.