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Emelec vs Aucas — Liga Pro 2026

Emelec
Emelec
Preview
20:00
Aucas
Aucas
8/2/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 23Estadio George Capwell
Big match
47%
Emelec
model favours
47%26%26%

Aucas win just 40% against the top half (vs 67% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Emelec47%
×Draw26%
Aucas26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emelec
1.46
Aucas
1.02

Emelec creates 43% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 131 away

creates per match

Emelec
1.47
Aucas
1.22

allows per match

Emelec
0.82
Aucas
1.46

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par
Aucas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Aucas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Emelec or draw
74%
Emelec or Aucas
74%
Draw or Aucas
53%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+
23%
Aucas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals
77%
Emelec 2+ goals
43%
Emelec 3+ goals
18%
Aucas 1+ goals
64%
Aucas 2+ goals
27%
Aucas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)
64%
Aucas (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.82 · 132 matches

Aucas away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.46 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.47 + Aucas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.46

Aucas attack 1.22 + Emelec defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Emelec scores more
47%
level
26%
Aucas scores more
26%

Emelec at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Emelec outscore their xG (1.2 vs 0.8 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Emelec
Balanced
Aucas
Defensively solid
50%Possession53%
78%Pass accuracy80%
9.2Shots10.3
0.75xGBiggest gap1.22
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
EmelecAucas

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

1
Emelec
4
Draws
5
Aucas
Avg goals: 1.7BTTS: 40%
0–20–20–02–10–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Emelec
WDDWW
Aucas
LWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Emelec host Aucas

August 2, 2026: Emelec take on Aucas in Liga Pro. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Emelec host Aucas at Estadio George Capwell.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.