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Ellerton vs Wotton — Premier League 2019

Ellerton
Ellerton
FT
1 – 3
Wotton
Wotton
7/2/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Ellerton52%
×Draw20%
Wotton28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ellerton
2.23
Wotton
1.59

Ellerton creates 40% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 44 away

creates per match

Ellerton
1.95
Wotton
1.80

allows per match

Ellerton
1.38
Wotton
2.50

finishing

Ellerton+0.00on par
Wotton+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ellerton ↓

Wotton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Ellerton or draw
72%
Ellerton or Wotton
80%
Draw or Wotton
48%

Winning margin

Ellerton wins by 2+
31%
Wotton wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ellerton 1+ goals
89%
Ellerton 2+ goals
65%
Ellerton 3+ goals
38%
Wotton 1+ goals
80%
Wotton 2+ goals
47%
Wotton 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Ellerton (draw refunded)
65%
Wotton (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ellerton at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.38 · 42 matches

Wotton away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.50 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ellerton attack 1.95 + Wotton defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.23

Wotton attack 1.80 + Ellerton defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ellerton scores more
52%
level
20%
Wotton scores more
28%

Ellerton at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ellerton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ellerton 1–3 Wotton

Wotton beat Ellerton 3-1 in Premier League on July 2, 2023.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.