Ellerton 2–0 Brittons Hill: Result & Stats

Ellerton

FT

2 – 0

Brittons Hill

2/9/2024

Premier League · Round 1Greens Playing Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Ellerton42%

×Draw22%

Brittons Hill36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EllertonExpected goals in this matchBrittons Hill

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.70

Ellerton

1.85

Brittons Hill

1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 40 away

1.95

creates per match

2.02

1.38

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Ellerton

1.95

Brittons Hill

2.02

allows per match

Ellerton

1.38

Brittons Hill

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ellerton+0.00on par

Brittons Hill+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ellerton ↓

Brittons Hill →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Ellerton or draw

64%

Ellerton or Brittons Hill

78%

Draw or Brittons Hill

58%

Winning margin

Ellerton wins by 2+

22%

Brittons Hill wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Ellerton 1+ goals

84%

Ellerton 2+ goals

55%

Ellerton 3+ goals

28%

Brittons Hill 1+ goals

82%

Brittons Hill 2+ goals

51%

Brittons Hill 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Ellerton (draw refunded)

54%

Brittons Hill (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ellerton at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.38 · 42 matches

Brittons Hill away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.75 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ellerton attack 1.95 + Brittons Hill defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.85

Brittons Hill attack 2.02 + Ellerton defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ellerton scores more

42%

level

22%

Brittons Hill scores more

36%

Ellerton at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ellerton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff