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Elgin City vs Dumbarton — League Two 2018

Elgin City
Elgin City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dumbarton
Dumbarton
1/27/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 22Borough Briggs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Elgin City42%
×Draw25%
Dumbarton33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elgin City
1.56
Dumbarton
1.35

Elgin City creates 16% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 55 away

creates per match

Elgin City
1.53
Dumbarton
1.33

allows per match

Elgin City
1.36
Dumbarton
1.60

finishing

Elgin City+0.00on par
Dumbarton+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elgin City ↓

Dumbarton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Elgin City or draw
67%
Elgin City or Dumbarton
75%
Draw or Dumbarton
58%

Winning margin

Elgin City wins by 2+
21%
Dumbarton wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Elgin City 1+ goals
79%
Elgin City 2+ goals
46%
Elgin City 3+ goals
21%
Dumbarton 1+ goals
74%
Dumbarton 2+ goals
39%
Dumbarton 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Elgin City (draw refunded)
56%
Dumbarton (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elgin City at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.36 · 134 matches

Dumbarton away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.60 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elgin City attack 1.53 + Dumbarton defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.56

Dumbarton attack 1.33 + Elgin City defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Elgin City scores more
42%
level
25%
Dumbarton scores more
33%

Elgin City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Elgin City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Elgin City 0–1 Dumbarton

Dumbarton beat Elgin City 1-0 in League Two on January 27, 2024.

The match was played at Borough Briggs in Elgin.