Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Elgin City vs Clyde — League Two 2018

Elgin City
Elgin City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Clyde
Clyde
1/30/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 14Borough Briggs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Elgin City40%
×Draw25%
Clyde36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elgin City
1.50
Clyde
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 134 home / 72 away

creates per match

Elgin City
1.53
Clyde
1.46

allows per match

Elgin City
1.36
Clyde
1.46

finishing

Elgin City+0.00on par
Clyde+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elgin City ↓

Clyde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Elgin City or draw
64%
Elgin City or Clyde
75%
Draw or Clyde
60%

Winning margin

Elgin City wins by 2+
19%
Clyde wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Elgin City 1+ goals
78%
Elgin City 2+ goals
44%
Elgin City 3+ goals
19%
Clyde 1+ goals
76%
Clyde 2+ goals
41%
Clyde 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Elgin City (draw refunded)
53%
Clyde (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elgin City at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.36 · 134 matches

Clyde away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elgin City attack 1.53 + Clyde defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.50

Clyde attack 1.46 + Elgin City defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Elgin City scores more
40%
level
25%
Clyde scores more
36%

Elgin City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Elgin City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Elgin City 2–1 Clyde

Elgin City beat Clyde 2-1 in League Two on January 30, 2024.

The match was played at Borough Briggs in Elgin.