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Eleven Wonders vs Karela — Premier League 2019

Eleven Wonders
Eleven Wonders
FT
3 – 1
Karela
Karela
1/10/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Ohene Ameyaw Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Eleven Wonders44%
×Draw30%
Karela26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eleven Wonders
1.18
Karela
0.82

Eleven Wonders creates 44% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 109 away

creates per match

Eleven Wonders
1.05
Karela
0.61

allows per match

Eleven Wonders
1.03
Karela
1.31

finishing

Eleven Wonders+0.00on par
Karela+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eleven Wonders ↓

Karela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Eleven Wonders or draw
74%
Eleven Wonders or Karela
70%
Draw or Karela
56%

Winning margin

Eleven Wonders wins by 2+
19%
Karela wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Eleven Wonders 1+ goals
69%
Eleven Wonders 2+ goals
33%
Eleven Wonders 3+ goals
12%
Karela 1+ goals
56%
Karela 2+ goals
20%
Karela 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Eleven Wonders (draw refunded)
63%
Karela (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eleven Wonders at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 58 matches

Karela away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.31 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eleven Wonders attack 1.05 + Karela defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.18

Karela attack 0.61 + Eleven Wonders defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Eleven Wonders scores more
44%
level
30%
Karela scores more
26%

Eleven Wonders at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Eleven Wonders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eleven Wonders vs Karela

Eleven Wonders beat Karela 3-1 in Premier League on January 10, 2021.

The match was played at Ohene Ameyaw Park in Techiman.