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Eldense vs Mallorca — Segunda División 2018

Eldense
Eldense
Preview
15:00
Mallorca
Mallorca
9/6/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 4Estadio Nuevo Pepico Amat
37%
Mallorca
model favours
33%29%37%

Mallorca win just 11% of their away games

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Eldense33%
×Draw29%
Mallorca37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eldense
1.05
Mallorca
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 45 away

creates per match

Eldense
1.19
Mallorca
0.93

allows per match

Eldense
1.33
Mallorca
0.91

finishing

Eldense+0.00on par
Mallorca+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eldense ↓

Mallorca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Eldense or draw
63%
Eldense or Mallorca
71%
Draw or Mallorca
67%

Winning margin

Eldense wins by 2+
13%
Mallorca wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Eldense 1+ goals
65%
Eldense 2+ goals
28%
Eldense 3+ goals
9%
Mallorca 1+ goals
68%
Mallorca 2+ goals
31%
Mallorca 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Eldense (draw refunded)
47%
Mallorca (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eldense at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.33 · 42 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eldense attack 1.19 + Mallorca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.05

Mallorca attack 0.93 + Eldense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Eldense scores more
33%
level
29%
Mallorca scores more
37%

Mallorca at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mallorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 30% of Mallorca’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Eldense and Mallorca have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Eldense
LLLWD
Mallorca
WLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eldense face Mallorca (Segunda División)

Segunda División returns with Eldense hosting Mallorca. Match starts September 6, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Eldense host Mallorca at Estadio Nuevo Pepico Amat.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.