Elche 1–2 Zaragoza: Result & Stats

Elche

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Zaragoza

Pere Milla 18'

L. Suárez 26'

Alberto Soro 13'

2/15/2020

Segunda División · Round 28Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Elche46%

×Draw28%

Zaragoza26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ElcheExpected goals in this matchZaragoza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.89

Elche

1.30

Zaragoza

0.89

Elche creates 46% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 172 away

1.31

creates per match

1.01

0.76

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Elche

1.31

Zaragoza

1.01

allows per match

Elche

0.76

Zaragoza

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elche+0.00on par

Zaragoza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Zaragoza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Elche or draw

74%

Elche or Zaragoza

72%

Draw or Zaragoza

54%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+

21%

Zaragoza wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals

73%

Elche 2+ goals

37%

Elche 3+ goals

14%

Zaragoza 1+ goals

59%

Zaragoza 2+ goals

22%

Zaragoza 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)

64%

Zaragoza (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.76 · 85 matches

Zaragoza away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.29 · 172 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.31 + Zaragoza defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.30

Zaragoza attack 1.01 + Elche defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Elche scores more

46%

level

28%

Zaragoza scores more

26%

Elche at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Alberto Soro

Zaragoza · M

7.7

Match Events

13'

Alberto Soro

18'

Pere Milla↳ Juan Cruz

26'

L. Suárez

46'

Fidel← Josán Fernández

52'

Pichu Atienza

56'

Dani Escriche← O. Mfulu

61'

71'

73'

76'

81'

D. Torres← Alberto Soro

84'

Dani Escriche

89'

Miguel Linares← Javi Puado

90'

Juan Cruz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ElcheZaragoza

Overview

57%Possession43%

6Total Shots16

1Corners2

14Fouls16

Shots

6Total Shots16

2On Target7

3Off Target8

1Blocked1

2Inside Box9

4Outside Box7

Passing

57%Possession43%

482Total Passes355

405Accurate Passes278

84%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls16

3Yellow Cards2

4Offsides0