Elche 2–0 Zaragoza: Result & Stats

Elche

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Zaragoza

Nino 66'

Gonzalo Verdú 10'

10/28/2018

Segunda División · Round 11Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Elche46%

×Draw28%

Zaragoza26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ElcheExpected goals in this matchZaragoza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.89

Elche

1.30

Zaragoza

0.89

Elche creates 46% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 172 away

1.31

creates per match

1.01

0.76

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Elche

1.31

Zaragoza

1.01

allows per match

Elche

0.76

Zaragoza

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elche+0.00on par

Zaragoza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Zaragoza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Elche or draw

74%

Elche or Zaragoza

72%

Draw or Zaragoza

54%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+

21%

Zaragoza wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals

73%

Elche 2+ goals

37%

Elche 3+ goals

14%

Zaragoza 1+ goals

59%

Zaragoza 2+ goals

22%

Zaragoza 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)

64%

Zaragoza (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.76 · 85 matches

Zaragoza away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.29 · 172 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.31 + Zaragoza defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.30

Zaragoza attack 1.01 + Elche defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Elche scores more

46%

level

28%

Zaragoza scores more

26%

Elche at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Gonzalo Verdú

Elche · D

7.6

Match Events

10'

Gonzalo Verdú↳ Gonzalo Villar

34'

Javi Flores

63'

Nino← Gonzalo Villar

66'

Nino↳ Iván Sánchez

70'

Raí Nascimento← Diego Aguirre

70'

Alberto Soro← Alberto Zapater

76'

Dani Provencio← Javi Flores

76'

Javi Ros← J. Igbekeme

79'

Neyder Lozano

81'

Manu← Borja Giner

90'

Rai Nascimento

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ElcheZaragoza

Overview

39%Possession61%

9Total Shots16

3Corners4

14Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots16

3On Target3

5Off Target10

1Blocked3

6Inside Box9

3Outside Box7

Passing

39%Possession61%

327Total Passes512

225Accurate Passes398

69%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

0Offsides2