Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Elche vs Villarreal — La Liga 2026

Elche
Elche
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Villarreal
Villarreal
L. Boyé 64'
G. Carrillo 49'
Gerard Moreno 35', 16'
2/6/2021La LigaLa Liga · Round 22Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Elche38%
×Draw25%
Villarreal38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elche
1.46
Villarreal
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 39 away

creates per match

Elche
1.55
Villarreal
1.29

allows per match

Elche
1.63
Villarreal
1.37

finishing

Elche-0.07on par
Villarreal+0.17scores more

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Villarreal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Elche or draw
62%
Elche or Villarreal
75%
Draw or Villarreal
62%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+
18%
Villarreal wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals
77%
Elche 2+ goals
43%
Elche 3+ goals
18%
Villarreal 1+ goals
77%
Villarreal 2+ goals
43%
Villarreal 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)
50%
Villarreal (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.63 · 29 matches

Villarreal away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.37 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.55 + Villarreal defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.46

Villarreal attack 1.29 + Elche defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Elche scores more
38%
level
25%
Villarreal scores more
38%

Elche at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
Gerard MorenoVillarrealVillarreal · F
8.3

Match Events

16'
Gerard Moreno↳ Paco Alcácer
22'
Lucas Boyé
25'
J. Foyth← F. Coquelin
35'
Gerard Moreno↳ Jaume Costa
49'
G. Carrillo↳ Josan Ferrández
50'
Yeremi Pino← Gerard Moreno
62'
Alfonso Pedraza
64'
L. Boyé
70'
Manu Trigueros
73'
P. Estupiñán← Pedraza
73'
C. Bacca← Jaume Costa
79'
Pere Milla← G. Carrillo

Possession

44%Elche

Shots

8Elche

Pass accuracy

50%Elche

Statistics

ElcheVillarreal
Overview
44%Possession56%
8Total Shots9
4Corners2
17Fouls5
Shots
8Total Shots9
2On Target4
4Off Target4
2Blocked1
5Inside Box7
3Outside Box2
Passing
44%Possession56%
438Total Passes564
374Accurate Passes483
85%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
17Fouls5
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Elche vs Villarreal

Elche and Villarreal drew 2-2 in La Liga on February 6, 2021.

Goals: Gerard Moreno (16', 35'), G. Carrillo (49'), L. Boyé (64').

Villarreal controlled possession (56%) and registered 9 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Elche.