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Elche vs Tenerife — Segunda División 2018

Elche
Elche
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tenerife
Tenerife
Y. Qasmi 8'
Borja Lasso 54'
9/19/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 6Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Elche48%
×Draw29%
Tenerife23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elche
1.28
Tenerife
0.80

Elche creates 60% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 155 away

creates per match

Elche
1.31
Tenerife
0.84

allows per match

Elche
0.76
Tenerife
1.25

finishing

Elche+0.00on par
Tenerife+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Tenerife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Elche or draw
77%
Elche or Tenerife
71%
Draw or Tenerife
52%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+
22%
Tenerife wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals
72%
Elche 2+ goals
37%
Elche 3+ goals
14%
Tenerife 1+ goals
55%
Tenerife 2+ goals
19%
Tenerife 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)
67%
Tenerife (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.76 · 85 matches

Tenerife away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.25 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.31 + Tenerife defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.28

Tenerife attack 0.84 + Elche defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Elche scores more
48%
level
29%
Tenerife scores more
23%

Elche at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
Luis MillaTenerifeTenerife · M
7.5

Match Events

8'
Y. Qasmi↳ Fidel
33'
Gonzalo Villar
46'
Dani Gómez← R. Mierez
54'
Borja Lasso↳ Luis Milla
56'
Yacine Qasmi
60'
Josán Fernández← Iván Sánchez
72'
Nahuel Leiva← F. Malbašić
75'
Manuel Sánchez← Gonzalo Villar
85'
Claudio Medina← Y. Qasmi
85'
Aitor Sanz← Borja Lasso

Possession

43%Elche

Shots

9Elche

Pass accuracy

48%Elche

Statistics

ElcheTenerife
Overview
43%Possession57%
9Total Shots10
4Corners5
15Fouls16
Shots
9Total Shots10
2On Target2
4Off Target3
3Blocked5
4Inside Box7
5Outside Box3
Passing
43%Possession57%
303Total Passes426
230Accurate Passes344
76%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls16
2Yellow Cards0
2Offsides1

Segunda División: Elche 1–1 Tenerife

Elche and Tenerife drew 1-1 in Segunda División on September 19, 2019.

Goals: Y. Qasmi (8'), Borja Lasso (54').

Tenerife controlled possession (57%) and registered 10 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Elche.