Elche 0–1 Sporting Gijon: Result & Stats

Elche

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sporting Gijon

Manu García 27'

10/19/2019

Segunda División · Round 12Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Elche46%

×Draw30%

Sporting Gijon25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ElcheExpected goals in this matchSporting Gijon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.82

Elche

1.23

Sporting Gijon

0.82

Elche creates 50% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 170 away

1.31

creates per match

0.89

0.76

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Elche

1.31

Sporting Gijon

0.89

allows per match

Elche

0.76

Sporting Gijon

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elche+0.00on par

Sporting Gijon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Sporting Gijon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Elche or draw

75%

Elche or Sporting Gijon

70%

Draw or Sporting Gijon

54%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+

20%

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals

71%

Elche 2+ goals

35%

Elche 3+ goals

13%

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

56%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

20%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)

65%

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.76 · 85 matches

Sporting Gijon away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.14 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.31 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sporting Gijon attack 0.89 + Elche defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Elche scores more

46%

level

30%

Sporting Gijon scores more

25%

Elche at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Iván Sánchez

Elche · M

7.4

Match Events

24'

Gonzalo Villar← O. Mfulu

27'

Manu García↳ Aitor García

35'

Marc Valiente

39'

Gonzalo Villar

50'

Fidel← Pere Milla

63'

Cristian Salvador

68'

Carlos Carmona← Isma Cerro

72'

Fidel

72'

Manuel Sanchez

72'

Manu García

74'

Pablo Pérez← Aitor García

76'

Francisco Molinero

77'

Pablo Pérez

83'

Josán Fernández← Gonzalo Villar

83'

Nacho Méndez← Manu García

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ElcheSporting

Overview

58%Possession42%

12Total Shots7

5Corners7

10Fouls21

Shots

12Total Shots7

2On Target2

7Off Target5

3Blocked0

7Inside Box5

5Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

418Total Passes311

348Accurate Passes232

83%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls21

3Yellow Cards5

4Offsides4

Segunda División: Elche 0–1 Sporting Gijon

Sporting Gijon beat Elche 1-0 in Segunda División on October 19, 2019.

Goals: Manu García (27').

Elche controlled possession (58%) and registered 12 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Elche.

Elche vs Sporting Gijon — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Elche 0–1 Sporting Gijon