Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Elche vs Sporting Gijon — Segunda División 2018

Elche
Elche
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sporting Gijon
Sporting Gijon
12/9/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 17Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Elche46%
×Draw30%
Sporting Gijon25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elche
1.23
Sporting Gijon
0.82

Elche creates 50% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 170 away

creates per match

Elche
1.31
Sporting Gijon
0.89

allows per match

Elche
0.76
Sporting Gijon
1.14

finishing

Elche+0.00on par
Sporting Gijon+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Sporting Gijon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Elche or draw
75%
Elche or Sporting Gijon
70%
Draw or Sporting Gijon
54%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+
20%
Sporting Gijon wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals
71%
Elche 2+ goals
35%
Elche 3+ goals
13%
Sporting Gijon 1+ goals
56%
Sporting Gijon 2+ goals
20%
Sporting Gijon 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)
65%
Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.76 · 85 matches

Sporting Gijon away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.14 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.31 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sporting Gijon attack 0.89 + Elche defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Elche scores more
46%
level
30%
Sporting Gijon scores more
25%

Elche at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
Javi FloresElcheElche · M
8.4

Match Events

8'
Gonzalo Verdú
33'
Sory Kaba
36'
André Sousa
40'
Borja Martinez
46'
Benja← S. Kaba
65'
N. Blackman← André Sousa
67'
Cristian Salvador
67'
Dani Provencio← Borja Giner
69'
Neyder Lozano
77'
Carlos Cordero
79'
Pablo Pérez← U. Đurđević
83'
Álvaro Jiménez← Traver
84'
Manuel Sánchez← Xavi Torres
86'
Daniel Provencio

Possession

52%Elche

Shots

13Elche

Pass accuracy

50%Elche

Statistics

ElcheSporting
Overview
52%Possession48%
13Total Shots14
2Corners4
13Fouls17
Shots
13Total Shots14
4On Target5
8Off Target8
1Blocked1
10Inside Box6
3Outside Box8
Passing
52%Possession48%
401Total Passes370
306Accurate Passes279
76%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls17
5Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
1Offsides3

Segunda División: Elche 0–0 Sporting Gijon

Elche and Sporting Gijon drew 0-0 in Segunda División on December 9, 2018.

Elche controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Elche.