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Elche vs Sevilla — La Liga 2026

Elche
Elche
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sevilla
Sevilla
E. Roco 11'
Y. En-Nesyri 40'
8/28/2021La LigaLa Liga · Round 3Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Elche44%
×Draw24%
Sevilla31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elche
1.61
Sevilla
1.32

Elche creates 22% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 45 away

creates per match

Elche
1.55
Sevilla
1.02

allows per match

Elche
1.63
Sevilla
1.67

finishing

Elche-0.07on par
Sevilla+0.09on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Sevilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Elche or draw
69%
Elche or Sevilla
76%
Draw or Sevilla
56%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+
23%
Sevilla wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals
80%
Elche 2+ goals
48%
Elche 3+ goals
22%
Sevilla 1+ goals
73%
Sevilla 2+ goals
38%
Sevilla 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)
58%
Sevilla (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.63 · 29 matches

Sevilla away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.67 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.55 + Sevilla defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

Sevilla attack 1.02 + Elche defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Elche scores more
44%
level
24%
Sevilla scores more
31%

Elche at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
M. AcuñaSevillaSevilla · D
8.9

Match Events

11'
E. Roco↳ Fidel
32'
Pere Milla← L. Boyé
40'
Y. En-Nesyri↳ M. Acuña
41'
Gonzalo Verdú
42'
Fidel
54'
H. Palacios← Gonzalo Verdú
60'
A. Gómez← I. Rakitić
60'
E. Lamela← Óscar Rodríguez
60'
Rafa Mir← Suso
65'
G. Carrillo← E. Roco
65'
Josema Sánchez← D. Benedetto
68'
T. Delaney← Joan Jordán
87'
O. Idrissi← Y. En-Nesyri

Possession

29%Elche

Shots

7Elche

Pass accuracy

43%Elche

Statistics

ElcheSevilla
Overview
29%Possession71%
7Total Shots18
5Corners3
6Fouls9
Shots
7Total Shots18
4On Target5
3Off Target10
0Blocked3
6Inside Box13
1Outside Box5
Passing
29%Possession71%
261Total Passes650
174Accurate Passes579
67%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
6Fouls9
2Yellow Cards0
2Offsides0

Elche 1 – 1 Sevilla

Elche and Sevilla drew 1-1 in La Liga on August 28, 2021.

Goals: E. Roco (11'), Y. En-Nesyri (40').

Sevilla controlled possession (71%) and registered 18 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Elche.