Elche 0–3 Real Sociedad: Result & Stats | La Liga

Elche

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Real Sociedad

Roberto López 90+4'

A. Januzaj 77' (pen)

Portu 55'

9/26/2020

La Liga · Round 3Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Elche42%

×Draw25%

Real Sociedad33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ElcheExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.33

Elche

1.52

Real Sociedad

1.33

Elche creates 14% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 36 away

1.55

creates per match

1.04

1.63

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Elche

1.55

Real Sociedad

1.04

allows per match

Elche

1.63

Real Sociedad

1.49

-0.07on par

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Elche-0.07on par

Real Sociedad-0.01on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Real Sociedad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Elche or draw

67%

Elche or Real Sociedad

75%

Draw or Real Sociedad

58%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+

21%

Real Sociedad wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals

78%

Elche 2+ goals

45%

Elche 3+ goals

20%

Real Sociedad 1+ goals

74%

Real Sociedad 2+ goals

38%

Real Sociedad 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)

56%

Real Sociedad (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.63 · 29 matches

Real Sociedad away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.49 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.55 + Real Sociedad defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.52

Real Sociedad attack 1.04 + Elche defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Elche scores more

42%

level

25%

Real Sociedad scores more

33%

Elche at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Mikel Merino

Real Sociedad · M

8.3

Match Events

31'

Nino← Cifuentes

35'

Omenuke Mfulu

43'

David Silva

55'

Portu↳ Mikel Merino

68'

Jon Bautista← A. Isak

68'

A. Januzaj← Portu

68'

Barrenetxea← Mikel Oyarzabal

70'

Gonzalo Verdú

74'

Luismi Sánchez← O. Mfulu

77'

A. JanuzajPenalty

78'

Roberto López← David Silva

79'

Martín Zubimendi← Guevara

87'

Raúl Guti

87'

L. Boyé← Pere Milla

87'

Víctor Rodríguez← Raúl Guti

90+4'

Roberto López↳ Mikel Merino

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ElcheReal

Overview

40%Possession60%

5Total Shots27

2Corners11

11Fouls12

Shots

5Total Shots27

2On Target7

2Off Target7

1Blocked13

2Inside Box20

3Outside Box7

Passing

40%Possession60%

338Total Passes492

260Accurate Passes423

77%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls12

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2