Elche 1–2 Real Madrid: Result & Stats | La Liga

Elche

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Real Madrid

Pere Milla 86'

Vinícius Júnior 73', 22'

10/30/2021

La Liga · Round 12Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Elche34%

×Draw24%

Real Madrid41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ElcheExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.59

Elche

1.43

Real Madrid

1.59

Real Madrid creates 11% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 43 away

1.55

creates per match

1.55

1.63

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Elche

1.55

Real Madrid

1.55

allows per match

Elche

1.63

Real Madrid

1.31

-0.07on par

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Elche-0.07on par

Real Madrid+0.05on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Real Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Elche or draw

59%

Elche or Real Madrid

76%

Draw or Real Madrid

66%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+

16%

Real Madrid wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals

76%

Elche 2+ goals

42%

Elche 3+ goals

17%

Real Madrid 1+ goals

80%

Real Madrid 2+ goals

47%

Real Madrid 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)

45%

Real Madrid (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.63 · 29 matches

Real Madrid away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.31 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.55 + Real Madrid defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.43

Real Madrid attack 1.55 + Elche defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Elche scores more

34%

level

24%

Real Madrid scores more

41%

Real Madrid at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Real Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Vinícius Júnior

Real Madrid · F

8.2

Match Events

8'

Raúl Guti

18'

Asensio← Rodrygo

22'

Vinícius Júnior↳ M. Díaz

63'

Raúl Guti

63'

Raúl Guti

65'

Carvajal← Lucas Vázquez

65'

F. Mendy← Marcelo

71'

Gumbau← J. Pastore

71'

D. Benedetto← Lucas Pérez

73'

Vinícius Júnior↳ L. Modrić

81'

Pere Milla← Fidel

81'

I. Marcone← Omar Mascarell

81'

Tete Morente← L. Boyé

84'

E. Hazard← Vinícius Júnior

84'

E. Camavinga← L. Modrić

86'

Pere Milla↳ D. Benedetto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ElcheReal

Overview

44%Possession56%

13Total Shots17

5Corners4

11Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots17

4On Target5

5Off Target7

4Blocked5

8Inside Box11

5Outside Box6

Passing

44%Possession56%

439Total Passes583

386Accurate Passes526

88%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls13

2Yellow Cards0

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1