Elche 1–1 Rayo Vallecano: Result & Stats

Elche

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rayo Vallecano

Nino 66'

Andrés Martín 78'

10/5/2019

Segunda División · Round 10Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Elche42%

×Draw29%

Rayo Vallecano29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ElcheExpected goals in this matchRayo Vallecano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.99

Elche

1.25

Rayo Vallecano

0.99

Elche creates 26% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 47 away

1.31

creates per match

1.23

0.76

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Elche

1.31

Rayo Vallecano

1.23

allows per match

Elche

0.76

Rayo Vallecano

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elche+0.00on par

Rayo Vallecano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Rayo Vallecano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Elche or draw

71%

Elche or Rayo Vallecano

71%

Draw or Rayo Vallecano

58%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+

19%

Rayo Vallecano wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals

71%

Elche 2+ goals

36%

Elche 3+ goals

13%

Rayo Vallecano 1+ goals

63%

Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals

26%

Rayo Vallecano 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)

59%

Rayo Vallecano (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.76 · 85 matches

Rayo Vallecano away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.31 + Rayo Vallecano defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Rayo Vallecano attack 1.23 + Elche defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Elche scores more

42%

level

29%

Rayo Vallecano scores more

29%

Elche at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Iván Sánchez

Elche · M

7.7

Match Events

13'

Gonzalo Verdú

57'

Nino← Fidel

58'

Álvaro García← Bebé

58'

Santi Comesaña← Mario Suárez

62'

Iván Sánchez← Josán Fernández

64'

Álvaro García

66'

Nino↳ Dani Calvo

73'

Andrés Martín← Saúl García

78'

Andrés Martín

82'

O. Mfulu← Gonzalo Villar

90'

Oscar Trejo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ElcheRayo

Overview

38%Possession62%

11Total Shots17

2Corners6

11Fouls19

Shots

11Total Shots17

3On Target4

8Off Target9

0Blocked4

6Inside Box11

5Outside Box6

Passing

38%Possession62%

262Total Passes428

170Accurate Passes354

65%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls19

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides7