Elche 2–0 Racing Santander: Result & Stats

Elche

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Racing Santander

Nino 51'

Y. Qasmi 21'

12/1/2019

Segunda División · Round 18Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Elche46%

×Draw27%

Racing Santander26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ElcheExpected goals in this matchRacing Santander

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.96

Elche

1.37

Racing Santander

0.96

Elche creates 43% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 106 away

1.31

creates per match

1.16

0.76

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Elche

1.31

Racing Santander

1.16

allows per match

Elche

0.76

Racing Santander

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elche+0.00on par

Racing Santander+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Racing Santander →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Elche or draw

74%

Elche or Racing Santander

73%

Draw or Racing Santander

54%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+

22%

Racing Santander wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals

75%

Elche 2+ goals

40%

Elche 3+ goals

16%

Racing Santander 1+ goals

62%

Racing Santander 2+ goals

25%

Racing Santander 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)

64%

Racing Santander (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.76 · 85 matches

Racing Santander away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.31 + Racing Santander defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.37

Racing Santander attack 1.16 + Elche defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Elche scores more

46%

level

27%

Racing Santander scores more

26%

Elche at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Iván Sánchez

Elche · M

7.9

Match Events

2'

Oscar Regaño

7'

David Carmona

21'

Y. Qasmi↳ Josán Fernández

51'

Nino↳ Gonzalo Verdú

55'

Iván Sánchez← Fidel

59'

Nico Hidalgo← Toribio

62'

Gonzalo Verdú

64'

Alexis Ruano

68'

David Rodríguez← N. Marong

71'

O. Mfulu← Nino

75'

Karim Yoda

79'

Claudio Medina← Y. Qasmi

90'

Enzo Lombardo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ElcheRacing

Overview

49%Possession51%

15Total Shots13

5Corners5

20Fouls18

Shots

15Total Shots13

3On Target3

10Off Target7

2Blocked3

9Inside Box9

6Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

375Total Passes393

299Accurate Passes308

80%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

20Fouls18

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1