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Elche vs Levante — Segunda División 2018

Elche
Elche
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Levante
Levante
9/30/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 8Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Elche40%
×Draw30%
Levante30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elche
1.11
Levante
0.91

Elche creates 22% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 66 away

creates per match

Elche
1.31
Levante
1.05

allows per match

Elche
0.77
Levante
0.92

finishing

Elche+0.00on par
Levante+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Levante →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Elche or draw
70%
Elche or Levante
70%
Draw or Levante
60%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+
16%
Levante wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals
67%
Elche 2+ goals
30%
Elche 3+ goals
10%
Levante 1+ goals
60%
Levante 2+ goals
23%
Levante 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)
57%
Levante (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.77 · 86 matches

Levante away — creates 1.05, concedes 0.92 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.31 + Levante defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.11

Levante attack 1.05 + Elche defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Elche scores more
40%
level
30%
Levante scores more
30%

Elche at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elche vs Levante

Elche and Levante drew 0-0 in Segunda División on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Elche.