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Elche vs Girona — Segunda División 2018

Elche
Elche
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Girona
Girona
Dani Escriche 47'
6/19/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 34Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Elche45%
×Draw29%
Girona26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elche
1.27
Girona
0.90

Elche creates 41% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 72 away

creates per match

Elche
1.31
Girona
1.04

allows per match

Elche
0.76
Girona
1.22

finishing

Elche+0.00on par
Girona+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Girona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Elche or draw
74%
Elche or Girona
71%
Draw or Girona
55%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+
20%
Girona wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals
72%
Elche 2+ goals
36%
Elche 3+ goals
14%
Girona 1+ goals
59%
Girona 2+ goals
23%
Girona 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)
63%
Girona (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.76 · 85 matches

Girona away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.22 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.31 + Girona defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Girona attack 1.04 + Elche defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Elche scores more
45%
level
29%
Girona scores more
26%

Elche at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
Edgar BadíaElcheElche · G
8.3

Match Events

25'
Juanpe
42'
Aday
47'
Dani Escriche↳ Josán Fernández
52'
E. Badia
57'
O. Gil
58'
Pere Milla← Fidel
64'
C. Stuani
65'
Valery← Aday
65'
Soriano← Álex Granell
67'
Andoni López← Juan Cruz
67'
Jonathas← Dani Escriche
69'
A. Lopez
71'
Jairo Izquierdo← J. Mojica
77'
Gumbau← Pablo Maffeo
77'
J. Zeballos← Christian Rivera
78'
J. Zeballos
81'
Manuel Sánchez← Josán Fernández
81'
Claudio Medina← Nino
90+3'
S. Saiz

Possession

44%Elche

Shots

8Elche

Pass accuracy

48%Elche

Statistics

ElcheGirona
Overview
44%Possession56%
8Total Shots14
4Corners2
18Fouls16
Shots
8Total Shots14
4On Target6
4Off Target6
0Blocked2
3Inside Box7
5Outside Box7
Passing
44%Possession56%
340Total Passes420
262Accurate Passes344
77%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
6Saves3
Discipline
18Fouls16
3Yellow Cards5
4Offsides3

Match Recap: Elche vs Girona

Elche beat Girona 1-0 in Segunda División on June 19, 2020.

Goals: Dani Escriche (47').

Girona controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Elche.