Elche 2–2 Espanyol: Result & Stats | La Liga

Elche

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Espanyol

D. Benedetto 84'

L. Boyé 23'

Raúl de Tomás 52'

Manu Morlanes 51'

10/23/2021

La Liga · Round 10Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Elche44%

×Draw24%

Espanyol31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ElcheExpected goals in this matchEspanyol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.32

Elche

1.62

Espanyol

1.32

Elche creates 23% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 28 away

1.55

creates per match

1.01

1.63

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Elche

1.55

Espanyol

1.01

allows per match

Elche

1.63

Espanyol

1.69

-0.07on par

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Elche-0.07on par

Espanyol+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Espanyol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Elche or draw

69%

Elche or Espanyol

76%

Draw or Espanyol

56%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+

23%

Espanyol wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals

80%

Elche 2+ goals

48%

Elche 3+ goals

22%

Espanyol 1+ goals

73%

Espanyol 2+ goals

38%

Espanyol 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)

59%

Espanyol (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.63 · 29 matches

Espanyol away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.69 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.55 + Espanyol defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.62

Espanyol attack 1.01 + Elche defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Elche scores more

44%

level

24%

Espanyol scores more

31%

Elche at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Raúl de Tomás

Espanyol · F

8.3

Match Events

23'

L. Boyé

34'

Gonzalo Verdú

46'

Manu Morlanes← David López

46'

Nico Melamed← Wu Lei

51'

Manu Morlanes↳ Raúl de Tomás

52'

Raúl de Tomás↳ Adrià Pedrosa

63'

Tete Morente← Omar Mascarell

64'

Gumbau← Lucas Pérez

64'

D. Benedetto← J. Pastore

67'

74'

75'

82'

82'

Fran Mérida← Óscar Gil

83'

H. Palacios← Raúl Guti

84'

D. Benedetto

86'

Helibelton Palacios

90+4'

Pedro Bigas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ElcheEspanyol

Overview

58%Possession42%

12Total Shots20

3Corners7

15Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots20

7On Target7

3Off Target10

2Blocked3

4Inside Box8

8Outside Box12

Passing

58%Possession42%

553Total Passes403

494Accurate Passes341

89%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls9

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Elche vs Espanyol

Elche and Espanyol drew 2-2 in La Liga on October 23, 2021.

Goals: L. Boyé (23'), Manu Morlanes (51'), Raúl de Tomás (52'), D. Benedetto (84').

Elche controlled possession (58%) and registered 12 shots to 20.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Elche.

Elche vs Espanyol — La Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Elche vs Espanyol