Elche 0–2 Atletico Madrid: Result & Stats | La Liga

Elche

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico Madrid

R. De Paul 62'

Matheus Cunha 28'

5/11/2022

La Liga · Round 36Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Elche39%

×Draw25%

Atletico Madrid36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ElcheExpected goals in this matchAtletico Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.40

Elche

1.47

Atletico Madrid

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 38 away

1.55

creates per match

1.16

1.63

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Elche

1.55

Atletico Madrid

1.16

allows per match

Elche

1.63

Atletico Madrid

1.39

-0.07on par

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Elche-0.07on par

Atletico Madrid+0.13scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Atletico Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Elche or draw

64%

Elche or Atletico Madrid

75%

Draw or Atletico Madrid

61%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+

19%

Atletico Madrid wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals

77%

Elche 2+ goals

43%

Elche 3+ goals

18%

Atletico Madrid 1+ goals

75%

Atletico Madrid 2+ goals

41%

Atletico Madrid 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)

52%

Atletico Madrid (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.63 · 29 matches

Atletico Madrid away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.55 + Atletico Madrid defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.47

Atletico Madrid attack 1.16 + Elche defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Elche scores more

39%

level

25%

Atletico Madrid scores more

36%

Elche at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

Renan Lodi

Atletico Madrid · D

7.9

Match Events

6'

Renan Lodi← Š. Vrsaljko

7'

Pere Milla

28'

Matheus Cunha↳ Renan Lodi

35'

Renan Lodi

40'

Pedro Bigas

58'

Josan Ferrández← Tete Morente

58'

Kike Pérez← Fidel

58'

G. Carrillo← L. Boyé

62'

R. De Paul↳ A. Griezmann

69'

J. Pastore← Pere Milla

72'

H. Herrera← A. Griezmann

72'

Á. Correa← R. De Paul

75'

Raúl Guti← Omar Mascarell

79'

Felipe← Y. Carrasco

80'

L. Suárez← Matheus Cunha

90+3'

Geoffrey Kondogbia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ElcheAtletico

Overview

56%Possession44%

9Total Shots11

6Corners3

16Fouls7

Shots

9Total Shots11

0On Target6

4Off Target5

5Blocked0

4Inside Box7

5Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

555Total Passes441

459Accurate Passes346

83%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

16Fouls7

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides8