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Elche vs Atletico Madrid — La Liga 2026

Elche
Elche
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Llorente 23'
5/1/2021La LigaLa Liga · Round 34Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Elche39%
×Draw25%
Atletico Madrid36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elche
1.47
Atletico Madrid
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 38 away

creates per match

Elche
1.55
Atletico Madrid
1.16

allows per match

Elche
1.63
Atletico Madrid
1.39

finishing

Elche-0.07on par
Atletico Madrid+0.13scores more

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Atletico Madrid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Elche or draw
64%
Elche or Atletico Madrid
75%
Draw or Atletico Madrid
61%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+
19%
Atletico Madrid wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals
77%
Elche 2+ goals
43%
Elche 3+ goals
18%
Atletico Madrid 1+ goals
75%
Atletico Madrid 2+ goals
41%
Atletico Madrid 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)
52%
Atletico Madrid (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.63 · 29 matches

Atletico Madrid away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.55 + Atletico Madrid defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.47

Atletico Madrid attack 1.16 + Elche defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Elche scores more
39%
level
25%
Atletico Madrid scores more
36%

Elche at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
Raúl GutiElcheElche · M
7.9

Match Events

18'
Luis SuárezGoal cancelled
23'
Llorente↳ Y. Carrasco
36'
Thomas Lemar
41'
Yannick Carrasco
45'
Ángel CorreaGoal cancelled
46'
Barragán← H. Palacios
46'
P. Piatti← Tete Morente
57'
João Félix← T. Lemar
65'
Koke← Á. Correa
69'
Pere Milla
71'
Nino← Pere Milla
75'
Lucas Boyé
76'
Antonio Barragán
80'
Josan Ferrández← I. Marcone
80'
Víctor Rodríguez← Josema Sánchez
82'
Saúl← L. Suárez
82'
Felipe← J. Giménez
90'
Stefan Savić

Possession

50%Elche

Shots

6Elche

Pass accuracy

50%Elche

Statistics

ElcheAtletico
Overview
50%Possession50%
6Total Shots11
3Corners2
20Fouls16
Shots
6Total Shots11
1On Target4
4Off Target3
1Blocked4
6Inside Box6
0Outside Box5
Passing
50%Possession50%
411Total Passes412
342Accurate Passes337
83%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
20Fouls16
3Yellow Cards3
0Offsides4

Match Recap: Elche vs Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid beat Elche 1-0 in La Liga on May 1, 2021.

Goals: Llorente (23').

Elche controlled possession (50%) and registered 6 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Elche.