Elche 0–1 Albacete: Result & Stats

Elche

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Albacete

Néstor Susaeta 17'

11/25/2018

Segunda División · Round 15Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Elche46%

×Draw28%

Albacete25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ElcheExpected goals in this matchAlbacete

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.90

Elche

1.32

Albacete

0.90

Elche creates 47% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 152 away

1.31

creates per match

1.04

0.76

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Elche

1.31

Albacete

1.04

allows per match

Elche

0.76

Albacete

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elche+0.00on par

Albacete+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Albacete →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Elche or draw

75%

Elche or Albacete

72%

Draw or Albacete

54%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+

22%

Albacete wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals

73%

Elche 2+ goals

38%

Elche 3+ goals

15%

Albacete 1+ goals

59%

Albacete 2+ goals

23%

Albacete 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)

65%

Albacete (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.76 · 85 matches

Albacete away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.33 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.31 + Albacete defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.32

Albacete attack 1.04 + Elche defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Elche scores more

46%

level

28%

Albacete scores more

25%

Elche at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Tomeu Nadal

Albacete · G

8.5

Match Events

7'

Eugeni Valderrama

14'

Gonzalo Verdú

17'

Néstor Susaeta↳ Aleix Febas

19'

Juan Cruz Alvaro Armada

29'

31'

37'

39'

40'

42'

49'

58'

68'

Benja← Tekio

69'

Neyder Lozano

72'

N. Gorosito← Eugeni Valderrama

77'

Chuca← Josán Fernández

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ElcheAlbacete

Overview

67%Possession33%

24Total Shots3

8Corners4

13Fouls16

Shots

24Total Shots3

5On Target2

9Off Target0

10Blocked1

11Inside Box1

13Outside Box2

Passing

67%Possession33%

486Total Passes252

416Accurate Passes169

86%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls16

5Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Elche vs Albacete

Albacete beat Elche 1-0 in Segunda División on November 25, 2018.

Goals: Néstor Susaeta (17').

Elche controlled possession (67%) and registered 24 shots to 3.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Elche.

Elche vs Albacete — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Elche vs Albacete