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Elche II vs Olímpic Xàtiva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Elche II
Elche II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Olímpic Xàtiva
Olímpic Xàtiva
10/20/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 9Estadio José Díez Iborra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Elche II57%
×Draw26%
Olímpic Xàtiva18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elche II
1.53
Olímpic Xàtiva
0.72

Elche II creates 113% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 44 away

creates per match

Elche II
1.65
Olímpic Xàtiva
0.73

allows per match

Elche II
0.72
Olímpic Xàtiva
1.41

finishing

Elche II+0.00on par
Olímpic Xàtiva+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche II ↓

Olímpic Xàtiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Elche II or draw
82%
Elche II or Olímpic Xàtiva
74%
Draw or Olímpic Xàtiva
43%

Winning margin

Elche II wins by 2+
30%
Olímpic Xàtiva wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Elche II 1+ goals
78%
Elche II 2+ goals
45%
Elche II 3+ goals
20%
Olímpic Xàtiva 1+ goals
51%
Olímpic Xàtiva 2+ goals
16%
Olímpic Xàtiva 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Elche II (draw refunded)
76%
Olímpic Xàtiva (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche II at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.72 · 75 matches

Olímpic Xàtiva away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.41 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche II attack 1.65 + Olímpic Xàtiva defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.53

Olímpic Xàtiva attack 0.73 + Elche II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Elche II scores more
57%
level
26%
Olímpic Xàtiva scores more
18%

Elche II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Elche II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elche II 0 – 1 Olímpic Xàtiva

Olímpic Xàtiva beat Elche II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio José Díez Iborra in Elche.