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Elana Toruń vs Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Elana Toruń
Elana Toruń
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
11/11/2023III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Elana Toruń41%
×Draw25%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elana Toruń
1.48
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
1.34

Elana Toruń creates 10% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 85 away

creates per match

Elana Toruń
1.60
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
1.55

allows per match

Elana Toruń
1.14
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
1.36

finishing

Elana Toruń+0.00on par
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elana Toruń ↓

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Elana Toruń or draw
66%
Elana Toruń or Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
75%
Draw or Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
59%

Winning margin

Elana Toruń wins by 2+
20%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Elana Toruń 1+ goals
77%
Elana Toruń 2+ goals
43%
Elana Toruń 3+ goals
19%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 1+ goals
74%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 2+ goals
39%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Elana Toruń (draw refunded)
54%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elana Toruń at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.14 · 77 matches

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.36 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elana Toruń attack 1.60 + Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.48

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce attack 1.55 + Elana Toruń defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Elana Toruń scores more
41%
level
25%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce scores more
34%

Elana Toruń at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Elana Toruń will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Elana Toruń 1–0 Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce

Elana Toruń beat Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 1-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego in Toruń.