El Paso Locomotive vs Sporting JAX — USL Championship 2026
Both teams score in 86% of Sporting JAX’s matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 8+ matches
El Paso Locomotive55%
Sporting JAX22%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
El Paso Locomotive creates 69% more chances
Season form · 117 home / 8 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
El Paso Locomotive ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
El Paso Locomotive at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.27 · 117 matches
Sporting JAX away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
El Paso Locomotive attack 1.63 + Sporting JAX defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81
Sporting JAX attack 0.88 + El Paso Locomotive defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.07
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 55%?"
El Paso Locomotive at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 55% does not mean "El Paso Locomotive will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- 79% of Sporting JAX’s matches go over 2.5 goals
- El Paso Locomotive score first in only 32% of matches
- 33% of El Paso Locomotive’s goals come after the 75th minute
- 22% of Sporting JAX’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
- El Paso Locomotive and Sporting JAX have never met before
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
No previous meetings between these teams
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Colorado SpringsIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
El Paso Locomotive host Sporting JAX on Sunday, 26 July 2026 at 01:00. The match is part of the USL Championship 2026/2027 season.
El Paso Locomotive face Sporting JAX (USL Championship)
USL Championship returns with El Paso Locomotive hosting Sporting JAX. Match starts July 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
El Paso Locomotive host Sporting JAX at Southwest University Park.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.