El Paso Locomotive vs FC Tulsa — USL Championship 2018
FC Tulsa score first in only 25% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 118+ matches
El Paso Locomotive49%
FC Tulsa27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
El Paso Locomotive creates 41% more chances
Season form · 118 home / 130 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over57
- Under43
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes58
- No42
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
El Paso Locomotive ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
El Paso Locomotive at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.28 · 118 matches
FC Tulsa away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 130 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
El Paso Locomotive attack 1.64 + FC Tulsa defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.73
FC Tulsa attack 1.19 + El Paso Locomotive defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
El Paso Locomotive at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "El Paso Locomotive will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- El Paso Locomotive score first in only 33% of matches
- Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings
- 33% of El Paso Locomotive’s goals come after the 75th minute
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Nashville
Indy Eleven
Louisville City
Tampa Bay Rowdies
New York RB II
North Carolina
Ottawa Fury
Charleston Battery
Birmingham Legion
Saint Louis
Loudoun United
Charlotte Independence
Atlanta United II
Memphis 901
Bethlehem Steel
Hartford Athletic
Swope Park Rangers
Phoenix Rising
Reno 1868
Fresno FC
Real Monarchs
Orange County SCEl Paso Locomotive
Sacramento Republic
Austin Bold
LA Galaxy II
New Mexico United
San Antonio
Rio Grande Valley
Las Vegas Lights
Portland Timbers II
OKC EnergyTulsa Roughnecks
Tacoma Defiance
Colorado SpringsIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
El Paso Locomotive host FC Tulsa on Saturday, 26 September 2026 at 01:00. The match is part of the USL Championship 2018/2019 season.
El Paso Locomotive face FC Tulsa (USL Championship)
USL Championship returns with El Paso Locomotive hosting FC Tulsa. Match starts September 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
El Paso Locomotive host FC Tulsa at Southwest University Park.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.