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El Palo vs Málaga II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

El Palo
El Palo
CANC
00:00
Málaga II
Málaga II
4/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 33Estadio San Ignacio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

El Palo38%
×Draw27%
Málaga II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Palo
1.28
Málaga II
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 92 away

creates per match

El Palo
1.46
Málaga II
1.35

allows per match

El Palo
1.08
Málaga II
1.10

finishing

El Palo+0.00on par
Málaga II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Palo ↓

Málaga II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

El Palo or draw
65%
El Palo or Málaga II
73%
Draw or Málaga II
62%

Winning margin

El Palo wins by 2+
17%
Málaga II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

El Palo 1+ goals
72%
El Palo 2+ goals
37%
El Palo 3+ goals
14%
Málaga II 1+ goals
70%
Málaga II 2+ goals
34%
Málaga II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

El Palo (draw refunded)
52%
Málaga II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Palo at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 92 matches

Málaga II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Palo attack 1.46 + Málaga II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.28

Málaga II attack 1.35 + El Palo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

El Palo scores more
38%
level
27%
Málaga II scores more
35%

El Palo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "El Palo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

El Palo face Málaga II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 9)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 returns with El Palo hosting Málaga II. Match starts April 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

El Palo host Málaga II at Estadio San Ignacio.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.