El Palo 2–1 Almería II: Result & Stats

El Palo

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Almería II

10/13/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 8Estadio San Ignacio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

El Palo39%

×Draw26%

Almería II35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

El PaloExpected goals in this matchAlmería II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.29

El Palo

1.38

Almería II

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 75 away

1.46

creates per match

1.51

1.08

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

El Palo

1.46

Almería II

1.51

allows per match

El Palo

1.08

Almería II

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

El Palo+0.00on par

Almería II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Palo ↓

Almería II →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

El Palo or draw

65%

El Palo or Almería II

74%

Draw or Almería II

61%

Winning margin

El Palo wins by 2+

18%

Almería II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

El Palo 1+ goals

75%

El Palo 2+ goals

40%

El Palo 3+ goals

16%

Almería II 1+ goals

72%

Almería II 2+ goals

37%

Almería II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

El Palo (draw refunded)

53%

Almería II (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

El Palo at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 92 matches

Almería II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.29 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

El Palo attack 1.46 + Almería II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

Almería II attack 1.51 + El Palo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

El Palo scores more

39%

level

26%

Almería II scores more

35%

El Palo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "El Palo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff