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El Palmar vs Plus Ultra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

El Palmar
El Palmar
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Plus Ultra
Plus Ultra
10/27/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 10Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

El Palmar58%
×Draw22%
Plus Ultra20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Palmar
1.95
Plus Ultra
1.06

El Palmar creates 84% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 63 away

creates per match

El Palmar
1.33
Plus Ultra
0.79

allows per match

El Palmar
1.33
Plus Ultra
2.56

finishing

El Palmar+0.00on par
Plus Ultra+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Palmar ↓

Plus Ultra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

El Palmar or draw
80%
El Palmar or Plus Ultra
78%
Draw or Plus Ultra
42%

Winning margin

El Palmar wins by 2+
34%
Plus Ultra wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

El Palmar 1+ goals
86%
El Palmar 2+ goals
58%
El Palmar 3+ goals
31%
Plus Ultra 1+ goals
65%
Plus Ultra 2+ goals
29%
Plus Ultra 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

El Palmar (draw refunded)
74%
Plus Ultra (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Palmar at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 113 matches

Plus Ultra away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.56 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Palmar attack 1.33 + Plus Ultra defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.95

Plus Ultra attack 0.79 + El Palmar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

El Palmar scores more
58%
level
22%
Plus Ultra scores more
20%

El Palmar at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "El Palmar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: El Palmar 4–0 Plus Ultra

El Palmar beat Plus Ultra 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar in El Palmar.