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El Palmar vs Olímpico Totana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

El Palmar
El Palmar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Olímpico Totana
Olímpico Totana
12/4/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 4Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

El Palmar40%
×Draw27%
Olímpico Totana33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Palmar
1.31
Olímpico Totana
1.16

El Palmar creates 13% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 50 away

creates per match

El Palmar
1.33
Olímpico Totana
0.98

allows per match

El Palmar
1.33
Olímpico Totana
1.28

finishing

El Palmar+0.00on par
Olímpico Totana+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Palmar ↓

Olímpico Totana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

El Palmar or draw
67%
El Palmar or Olímpico Totana
73%
Draw or Olímpico Totana
60%

Winning margin

El Palmar wins by 2+
18%
Olímpico Totana wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

El Palmar 1+ goals
73%
El Palmar 2+ goals
38%
El Palmar 3+ goals
14%
Olímpico Totana 1+ goals
69%
Olímpico Totana 2+ goals
32%
Olímpico Totana 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

El Palmar (draw refunded)
55%
Olímpico Totana (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Palmar at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 113 matches

Olímpico Totana away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Palmar attack 1.33 + Olímpico Totana defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.31

Olímpico Totana attack 0.98 + El Palmar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

El Palmar scores more
40%
level
27%
Olímpico Totana scores more
33%

El Palmar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "El Palmar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: El Palmar 1–0 Olímpico Totana

El Palmar beat Olímpico Totana 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 4, 2019.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar in El Palmar.