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El Palmar vs Atlético Pulpileño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

El Palmar
El Palmar
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Atlético Pulpileño
Atlético Pulpileño
12/18/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 15Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

El Palmar32%
×Draw28%
Atlético Pulpileño40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Palmar
1.09
Atlético Pulpileño
1.25

Atlético Pulpileño creates 15% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 93 away

creates per match

El Palmar
1.33
Atlético Pulpileño
1.16

allows per match

El Palmar
1.33
Atlético Pulpileño
0.85

finishing

El Palmar+0.00on par
Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Palmar ↓

Atlético Pulpileño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

El Palmar or draw
60%
El Palmar or Atlético Pulpileño
72%
Draw or Atlético Pulpileño
68%

Winning margin

El Palmar wins by 2+
13%
Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

El Palmar 1+ goals
66%
El Palmar 2+ goals
30%
El Palmar 3+ goals
10%
Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals
71%
Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals
36%
Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

El Palmar (draw refunded)
45%
Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Palmar at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 113 matches

Atlético Pulpileño away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.85 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Palmar attack 1.33 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.09

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.16 + El Palmar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

El Palmar scores more
32%
level
28%
Atlético Pulpileño scores more
40%

Atlético Pulpileño at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atlético Pulpileño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: El Palmar vs Atlético Pulpileño

Atlético Pulpileño beat El Palmar 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 18, 2022.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar in El Palmar.