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El Nacional vs 9 de Octubre — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

El Nacional
El Nacional
Preview
20:00
9 de Octubre
9 de Octubre
8/5/2026Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 20
50%
El Nacional
model favours
50%27%23%

9 de Octubre are unbeaten in 12 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

El Nacional50%
×Draw27%
9 de Octubre23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Nacional
1.41
9 de Octubre
0.86

El Nacional creates 64% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 69 away

creates per match

El Nacional
1.61
9 de Octubre
0.88

allows per match

El Nacional
0.84
9 de Octubre
1.20

finishing

El Nacional+0.00on par
9 de Octubre+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Nacional ↓

9 de Octubre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

El Nacional or draw
77%
El Nacional or 9 de Octubre
73%
Draw or 9 de Octubre
50%

Winning margin

El Nacional wins by 2+
24%
9 de Octubre wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

El Nacional 1+ goals
76%
El Nacional 2+ goals
41%
El Nacional 3+ goals
17%
9 de Octubre 1+ goals
58%
9 de Octubre 2+ goals
21%
9 de Octubre 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

El Nacional (draw refunded)
68%
9 de Octubre (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Nacional at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.84 · 44 matches

9 de Octubre away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.20 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Nacional attack 1.61 + 9 de Octubre defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.41

9 de Octubre attack 0.88 + El Nacional defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

El Nacional scores more
50%
level
27%
9 de Octubre scores more
23%

El Nacional at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "El Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • El Nacional score first in only 8% of matches
  • 9 de Octubre score first in only 33% of matches
  • Both teams score in 75% of El Nacional’s matches
  • 67% of 9 de Octubre’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • El Nacional win just 29% against the top half (vs 58% against the bottom)
  • El Nacional sit 12, 9 de Octubre 1 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Nacional
LLLDL
Octubre
DDDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

El Nacional face 9 de Octubre (Liga Pro Serie B)

Liga Pro Serie B returns with El Nacional hosting 9 de Octubre. Match starts August 5, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.