El Kanemi Warriors vs Sunshine Stars — NPFL 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 64+ matches
El Kanemi Warriors57%
Sunshine Stars15%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
El Kanemi Warriors creates 148% more chances
Season form · 64 home / 113 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under71
- Over29
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No69
- Yes31
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
El Kanemi Warriors ↓
Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
El Kanemi Warriors at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.59 · 64 matches
Sunshine Stars away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.47 · 113 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
El Kanemi Warriors attack 1.22 + Sunshine Stars defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.34
Sunshine Stars attack 0.50 + El Kanemi Warriors defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.54
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
El Kanemi Warriors at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "El Kanemi Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
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Rivers United
Shooting Stars
Ikorodu City
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Nasarawa United
Abia Warriors
Barau FC
Katsina United
Kano Pillars
Plateau United
Kwara United
Enyimba
Kun Khalifat FC
Warri Wolves
Niger Tornadoes
Remo StarsEl Kanemi Warriors
Bayelsa United
Wikki TouristIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
El Kanemi Warriors host Sunshine Stars on Wednesday, 1 March 2017 at 15:00. The match is part of the NPFL 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: El Kanemi Warriors vs Sunshine Stars
El Kanemi Warriors beat Sunshine Stars 3-1 in NPFL on March 1, 2017.
The match was played at El Kanemi Stadium (Maiduguri).