El Gouna FC vs National Bank of Egypt — League Cup 2021
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 9+ matches
El Gouna FC30%
National Bank of Egypt43%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
National Bank of Egypt creates 26% more chances
Season form · 9 home / 15 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under57
- Over43
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
El Gouna FC ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
El Gouna FC at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches
National Bank of Egypt away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
El Gouna FC attack 1.11 + National Bank of Egypt defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06
National Bank of Egypt attack 1.80 + El Gouna FC defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.34
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
National Bank of Egypt at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "National Bank of Egypt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
AL Masry
Petrojet
Wadi Degla
Enppi
El Geish
MasrEl Gouna FC
El Mokawloon
Pharco
Al Ittihad
Kahraba Ismailia
Ghazl El Mehalla
Smouha SCNational Bank of Egypt
Zamalek SC
Al Ahly
Ismaily SC
Future FC
Ceramica Cleopatra
Pyramids FC
Haras El HodoodIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
El Gouna FC host National Bank of Egypt on Wednesday, 10 January 2024 at 13:00. The match is part of the League Cup 2021/2022 season.
Match Recap: El Gouna FC vs National Bank of Egypt
El Gouna FC beat National Bank of Egypt 3-1 in League Cup on January 10, 2024.
The match was played at Khaled Bichara Stadium in El-Gouna.