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El Ejido vs Mancha Real — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

El Ejido
El Ejido
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mancha Real
Mancha Real
9/22/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 5Estadio de Municipal Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

El Ejido38%
×Draw29%
Mancha Real33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Ejido
1.17
Mancha Real
1.06

El Ejido creates 10% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 79 away

creates per match

El Ejido
1.19
Mancha Real
0.73

allows per match

El Ejido
1.40
Mancha Real
1.16

finishing

El Ejido+0.00on par
Mancha Real+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Ejido ↓

Mancha Real →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

El Ejido or draw
67%
El Ejido or Mancha Real
71%
Draw or Mancha Real
62%

Winning margin

El Ejido wins by 2+
16%
Mancha Real wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

El Ejido 1+ goals
69%
El Ejido 2+ goals
33%
El Ejido 3+ goals
11%
Mancha Real 1+ goals
65%
Mancha Real 2+ goals
29%
Mancha Real 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

El Ejido (draw refunded)
54%
Mancha Real (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Ejido at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.40 · 48 matches

Mancha Real away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.16 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Ejido attack 1.19 + Mancha Real defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

Mancha Real attack 0.73 + El Ejido defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

El Ejido scores more
38%
level
29%
Mancha Real scores more
33%

El Ejido at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "El Ejido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: El Ejido 1–0 Mancha Real

El Ejido beat Mancha Real 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio de Municipal Santo Domingo in El Ejido.