Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ekwendeni Hammers vs Moyale Barracks — Super League 2026

Ekwendeni Hammers
Ekwendeni Hammers
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Moyale Barracks
Moyale Barracks
4/23/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 2Mzuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Ekwendeni Hammers47%
×Draw28%
Moyale Barracks25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ekwendeni Hammers
1.31
Moyale Barracks
0.86

Ekwendeni Hammers creates 52% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 84 away

creates per match

Ekwendeni Hammers
1.11
Moyale Barracks
0.86

allows per match

Ekwendeni Hammers
0.87
Moyale Barracks
1.50

finishing

Ekwendeni Hammers+0.00on par
Moyale Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ekwendeni Hammers ↓

Moyale Barracks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ekwendeni Hammers or draw
75%
Ekwendeni Hammers or Moyale Barracks
72%
Draw or Moyale Barracks
53%

Winning margin

Ekwendeni Hammers wins by 2+
22%
Moyale Barracks wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ekwendeni Hammers 1+ goals
73%
Ekwendeni Hammers 2+ goals
38%
Ekwendeni Hammers 3+ goals
14%
Moyale Barracks 1+ goals
58%
Moyale Barracks 2+ goals
21%
Moyale Barracks 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ekwendeni Hammers (draw refunded)
66%
Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ekwendeni Hammers at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.87 · 75 matches

Moyale Barracks away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.50 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ekwendeni Hammers attack 1.11 + Moyale Barracks defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Moyale Barracks attack 0.86 + Ekwendeni Hammers defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ekwendeni Hammers scores more
47%
level
28%
Moyale Barracks scores more
25%

Ekwendeni Hammers at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ekwendeni Hammers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ekwendeni Hammers vs Moyale Barracks

Ekwendeni Hammers and Moyale Barracks drew 0-0 in Super League on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Mzuzu Stadium in Mzuzu.