Ekwendeni Hammers 1–1 Karonga United

Ekwendeni Hammers

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Karonga United

5/27/2023

Super League · Round 5Mzuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Ekwendeni Hammers47%

×Draw29%

Karonga United24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ekwendeni HammersExpected goals in this matchKaronga United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.82

Ekwendeni Hammers

1.27

Karonga United

0.82

Ekwendeni Hammers creates 55% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 82 away

1.11

creates per match

0.78

0.87

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Ekwendeni Hammers

1.11

Karonga United

0.78

allows per match

Ekwendeni Hammers

0.87

Karonga United

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ekwendeni Hammers+0.00on par

Karonga United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ekwendeni Hammers ↓

Karonga United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ekwendeni Hammers or draw

76%

Ekwendeni Hammers or Karonga United

71%

Draw or Karonga United

53%

Winning margin

Ekwendeni Hammers wins by 2+

21%

Karonga United wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ekwendeni Hammers 1+ goals

72%

Ekwendeni Hammers 2+ goals

36%

Ekwendeni Hammers 3+ goals

14%

Karonga United 1+ goals

56%

Karonga United 2+ goals

20%

Karonga United 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ekwendeni Hammers (draw refunded)

66%

Karonga United (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ekwendeni Hammers at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.87 · 75 matches

Karonga United away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ekwendeni Hammers attack 1.11 + Karonga United defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27

Karonga United attack 0.78 + Ekwendeni Hammers defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ekwendeni Hammers scores more

47%

level

29%

Karonga United scores more

24%

Ekwendeni Hammers at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ekwendeni Hammers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff