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Ekwendeni Hammers vs Dedza Dynamos — Super League 2026

Ekwendeni Hammers
Ekwendeni Hammers
FT
4 – 0
Dedza Dynamos
Dedza Dynamos
9/18/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 18Rumphi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Ekwendeni Hammers51%
×Draw27%
Dedza Dynamos22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ekwendeni Hammers
1.40
Dedza Dynamos
0.82

Ekwendeni Hammers creates 71% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 65 away

creates per match

Ekwendeni Hammers
1.11
Dedza Dynamos
0.78

allows per match

Ekwendeni Hammers
0.87
Dedza Dynamos
1.69

finishing

Ekwendeni Hammers+0.00on par
Dedza Dynamos+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ekwendeni Hammers ↓

Dedza Dynamos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ekwendeni Hammers or draw
78%
Ekwendeni Hammers or Dedza Dynamos
73%
Draw or Dedza Dynamos
49%

Winning margin

Ekwendeni Hammers wins by 2+
25%
Dedza Dynamos wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ekwendeni Hammers 1+ goals
75%
Ekwendeni Hammers 2+ goals
41%
Ekwendeni Hammers 3+ goals
17%
Dedza Dynamos 1+ goals
56%
Dedza Dynamos 2+ goals
20%
Dedza Dynamos 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ekwendeni Hammers (draw refunded)
70%
Dedza Dynamos (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ekwendeni Hammers at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.87 · 75 matches

Dedza Dynamos away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.69 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ekwendeni Hammers attack 1.11 + Dedza Dynamos defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.40

Dedza Dynamos attack 0.78 + Ekwendeni Hammers defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ekwendeni Hammers scores more
51%
level
27%
Dedza Dynamos scores more
22%

Ekwendeni Hammers at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ekwendeni Hammers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Ekwendeni Hammers 4–0 Dedza Dynamos

Ekwendeni Hammers beat Dedza Dynamos 4-0 in Super League on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Rumphi Stadium in Rhumpi.