Ekibastuz vs Akademiya Ontustik

Ekibastuz

PST

00:00

Akademiya Ontustik

3/19/2020

Cup · Group Stage - 2BIIK Futbol'noye Pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ekibastuz33%

×Draw23%

Akademiya Ontustik44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EkibastuzExpected goals in this matchAkademiya Ontustik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.73

Ekibastuz

1.46

Akademiya Ontustik

1.73

Akademiya Ontustik creates 18% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.50

creates per match

1.71

1.75

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Ekibastuz

1.50

Akademiya Ontustik

1.71

allows per match

Ekibastuz

1.75

Akademiya Ontustik

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ekibastuz+0.00on par

Akademiya Ontustik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ekibastuz ↓

Akademiya Ontustik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Ekibastuz or draw

56%

Ekibastuz or Akademiya Ontustik

77%

Draw or Akademiya Ontustik

67%

Winning margin

Ekibastuz wins by 2+

15%

Akademiya Ontustik wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Ekibastuz 1+ goals

77%

Ekibastuz 2+ goals

43%

Ekibastuz 3+ goals

18%

Akademiya Ontustik 1+ goals

82%

Akademiya Ontustik 2+ goals

52%

Akademiya Ontustik 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Ekibastuz (draw refunded)

43%

Akademiya Ontustik (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ekibastuz at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Akademiya Ontustik away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ekibastuz attack 1.50 + Akademiya Ontustik defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Akademiya Ontustik attack 1.71 + Ekibastuz defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ekibastuz scores more

33%

level

23%

Akademiya Ontustik scores more

44%

Akademiya Ontustik at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Akademiya Ontustik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff